Illinois
Big Ten
2020-21 - 2021-22 - 2022-23
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Overall
Predictive Rating+12.3#30
Expected Predictive Rating+7.9#79
Pace72.2#95
Improvement-1.3#277

Offense
Total Offense+7.5#21
First Shot+3.6#76
After Offensive Rebound+3.9#12
Layup/Dunks-2.1#246
2 Pt Jumpshots-0.4#191
3 Pt Jumpshots+3.8#69
Freethrows+2.4#46
Improvement+2.3#19

Defense
Total Defense+4.8#55
First Shot+6.6#21
After Offensive Rebounds-1.8#288
Layups/Dunks+6.9#10
2 Pt Jumpshots-5.6#354
3 Pt Jumpshots+4.8#37
Freethrows+0.5#163
Improvement-3.5#355
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.2% 0.3% 0.0%
#1 Seed 1.2% 1.5% 0.3%
Top 2 Seed 3.7% 4.3% 1.1%
Top 4 Seed 13.8% 15.6% 5.9%
Top 6 Seed 28.7% 31.5% 16.1%
NCAA Tourney Bid 65.1% 68.7% 48.7%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 62.9% 66.5% 47.0%
Average Seed 6.9 6.7 7.7
.500 or above 85.2% 88.6% 69.7%
.500 or above in Conference 63.7% 68.4% 42.4%
Conference Champion 5.4% 6.3% 1.3%
Last Place in Conference 2.3% 1.2% 7.0%
First Four5.2% 4.9% 6.7%
First Round62.6% 66.3% 45.6%
Second Round39.3% 42.0% 26.7%
Sweet Sixteen17.4% 18.8% 11.3%
Elite Eight7.6% 8.1% 5.3%
Final Four3.2% 3.6% 1.7%
Championship Game1.3% 1.4% 0.6%
National Champion0.5% 0.6% 0.2%

Next Game: Rutgers (Home) - 82.0% chance of victory

Projected Seeding 8 seed  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a3 - 63 - 6
Quad 1b3 - 36 - 10
Quad 25 - 311 - 13
Quad 34 - 115 - 13
Quad 45 - 020 - 13


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 09, 2021 249   Jackson St. W 71-47 96%     1 - 0 +16.3 +0.6 +16.7
  Nov 12, 2021 231   Arkansas St. W 92-53 95%     2 - 0 +32.7 +8.5 +21.0
  Nov 15, 2021 71   @ Marquette L 66-67 59%     2 - 1 +9.0 -7.0 +16.0
  Nov 22, 2021 55   Cincinnati L 51-71 65%     2 - 2 -11.7 -12.2 -0.6
  Nov 23, 2021 91   Kansas St. W 72-64 73%     3 - 2 +13.9 +7.4 +6.8
  Nov 26, 2021 284   UT Rio Grande Valley W 94-85 97%     4 - 2 -0.6 +11.8 -12.7
  Nov 29, 2021 64   Notre Dame W 82-72 77%     5 - 2 +14.4 +15.1 +0.0
  Dec 03, 2021 96   Rutgers W 74-64 82%    
  Dec 06, 2021 19   @ Iowa L 80-85 31%    
  Dec 11, 2021 5   Arizona L 76-79 40%    
  Dec 18, 2021 269   St. Francis (PA) W 86-65 97%    
  Dec 22, 2021 128   Missouri W 76-66 83%    
  Dec 29, 2021 305   Florida A&M W 82-59 98%    
  Jan 02, 2022 86   @ Minnesota W 74-71 61%    
  Jan 06, 2022 51   Maryland W 75-68 73%    
  Jan 11, 2022 105   @ Nebraska W 80-75 67%    
  Jan 14, 2022 16   Michigan W 72-71 51%    
  Jan 17, 2022 2   Purdue L 74-78 35%    
  Jan 21, 2022 51   @ Maryland W 72-71 52%    
  Jan 25, 2022 22   Michigan St. W 73-72 55%    
  Jan 29, 2022 44   @ Northwestern L 74-75 47%    
  Feb 02, 2022 31   Wisconsin W 69-66 61%    
  Feb 05, 2022 32   @ Indiana L 70-73 39%    
  Feb 10, 2022 2   @ Purdue L 71-81 19%    
  Feb 13, 2022 44   Northwestern W 77-72 69%    
  Feb 16, 2022 96   @ Rutgers W 71-67 63%    
  Feb 19, 2022 22   @ Michigan St. L 70-75 34%    
  Feb 24, 2022 29   Ohio St. W 76-73 59%    
  Feb 27, 2022 16   @ Michigan L 69-75 31%    
  Mar 03, 2022 67   Penn St. W 71-63 76%    
  Mar 06, 2022 19   Iowa W 83-82 53%    
Projected Record 19 - 12 11 - 9





Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.




Projected Big Ten Finish

0-20 1-19 2-18 3-17 4-16 5-15 6-14 7-13 8-12 9-11 10-10 11-9 12-8 13-7 14-6 15-5 16-4 17-3 18-2 19-1 20-0 Total
1st 0.1 0.5 1.4 1.7 1.1 0.4 0.1 0.0 5.4 1st
2nd 0.1 1.2 2.5 2.7 0.9 0.2 7.5 2nd
3rd 0.1 1.1 3.7 3.4 0.8 0.1 0.0 9.2 3rd
4th 0.1 1.2 4.0 3.5 1.0 0.1 9.8 4th
5th 0.0 0.9 3.7 4.0 1.2 0.1 9.9 5th
6th 0.0 0.4 3.1 4.7 1.9 0.1 10.2 6th
7th 0.2 2.1 4.8 2.6 0.2 9.8 7th
8th 0.1 1.3 4.8 3.1 0.5 0.0 9.9 8th
9th 0.1 0.8 3.3 3.7 0.7 0.0 8.5 9th
10th 0.0 0.6 2.6 2.9 0.9 0.1 7.1 10th
11th 0.0 0.4 1.7 2.5 0.9 0.1 5.6 11th
12th 0.0 0.3 1.1 1.5 0.8 0.1 3.8 12th
13th 0.0 0.2 0.6 0.9 0.5 0.1 2.2 13th
14th 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.2 0.2 0.0 0.0 1.0 14th
Total 0.1 0.2 0.5 1.1 2.7 4.4 6.9 8.6 11.9 12.7 12.9 11.3 9.8 7.4 4.9 2.7 1.4 0.4 0.1 0.0 Total



Big Ten Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
20-0 100.0% 0.0    0.0
19-1 100.0% 0.1    0.1
18-2 100.0% 0.4    0.4 0.1
17-3 82.6% 1.1    0.8 0.3
16-4 64.8% 1.7    1.0 0.6 0.2 0.0
15-5 28.3% 1.4    0.5 0.6 0.2 0.0 0.0
14-6 6.5% 0.5    0.1 0.1 0.2 0.1
13-7 0.9% 0.1    0.0 0.0 0.0
12-8 0.0%
11-9 0.0%
10-10 0.0%
Total 5.4% 5.4 2.9 1.7 0.7 0.2 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid
AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
20-0 0.0% 0.0
19-1 0.1% 0.1 0.0
18-2 0.4% 100.0% 31.8% 68.2% 1.6 0.2 0.1 0.1 100.0%
17-3 1.4% 100.0% 31.9% 68.1% 2.0 0.4 0.6 0.2 0.1 0.0 100.0%
16-4 2.7% 100.0% 21.3% 78.7% 2.8 0.4 0.8 0.8 0.6 0.1 0.0 100.0%
15-5 4.9% 100.0% 15.2% 84.8% 3.7 0.1 0.6 1.6 1.5 0.7 0.3 0.1 0.0 100.0%
14-6 7.4% 99.9% 13.8% 86.1% 4.8 0.0 0.2 1.1 1.8 2.0 1.3 0.7 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 99.8%
13-7 9.8% 99.8% 11.0% 88.8% 5.9 0.1 0.5 1.2 2.3 2.3 2.1 1.0 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.0 99.8%
12-8 11.3% 97.8% 6.1% 91.7% 7.0 0.0 0.1 0.4 1.2 2.2 3.1 2.2 1.2 0.4 0.2 0.0 0.3 97.6%
11-9 12.9% 92.7% 3.2% 89.4% 8.1 0.1 0.5 1.3 2.5 3.0 2.6 1.4 0.6 0.1 0.0 1.0 92.4%
10-10 12.7% 72.4% 2.4% 69.9% 9.2 0.0 0.1 0.5 1.0 1.5 1.8 2.0 1.7 0.6 0.0 3.5 71.7%
9-11 11.9% 40.2% 1.0% 39.2% 10.5 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.3 0.5 0.9 1.7 1.1 0.1 7.1 39.6%
8-12 8.6% 12.7% 1.5% 11.1% 10.9 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.4 0.4 0.0 7.5 11.3%
7-13 6.9% 2.9% 0.6% 2.3% 11.6 0.1 0.1 0.0 6.7 2.3%
6-14 4.4% 0.7% 0.5% 0.2% 12.7 0.0 0.0 4.4 0.2%
5-15 2.7% 2.7
4-16 1.1% 1.1
3-17 0.5% 0.5
2-18 0.2% 0.2
1-19 0.1% 0.1
0-20
Total 100% 65.1% 5.8% 59.3% 6.9 1.2 2.5 4.4 5.7 7.0 7.9 9.7 8.2 6.3 5.0 4.7 2.3 0.2 34.9 62.9%