North Dakota
Summit League
2019-20 - 2025-26 - 2026-27
Switch to All-time Team Page
Predictive Rating -7.7 295
Expected Predictive Rating -4.7 243
Pace 69.3 162
Improvement +5.0 26

Overall 1st FGA Second Chance TOs Free
throws		 Shot Selection
Offense C- 228 D C- B- C+ B
Defense D- 328 D- F+ B+ D- F+

Offense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect
Close Shots 42% 84 D- 51% 336 -1.0 217
2 Pt. Jumpers 29% 269 D 33% 325 -2.9 319
Three Pointers 43% 147 D+ 32% 278 -0.6 201
Shot Selection/Accuracy B +0.9 62 D- -5.1 336
1st FG Attempt D 0.93 311
Second Chance C- 28.1% 247 C+ 1.05 144 C- 0.29 219
Turnovers B- 15.4% 90
Freethrows B- 0.34 83 D+ 70% 264 C+ 0.23 128
Total Offense C- -2.0 228

Assists Blocks (Opponents')
Close Shots F 29% 361 C- 12.3% 257
2 Pt. Jumpers Shots C- 21% 244 C- 6.0% 248
Three Pointers C- 83% 218 B 0.3% 48
Total D- 46% 341 C- 6.2% 246

Defense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect
Close Shots 44% 56 D 63% 314 +5.3 338
2 Pt. Jumpers 13% 358 C- 40% 238 -2.6 11
Three Pointers 43% 106 D 37% 298 +2.8 306
Shot Selection/Accuracy F+ +1.3 357 D +4.0 324
1st FG Attempt D- 1.13 338
Second Chance D- 34.7% 325 D- 1.15 325 F+ 0.40 345
Turnovers B+ 19.8% 32
Freethrows F+ 0.38 345 C+ 71% 122 D- 0.27 335
Total Defense D- -5.7 328

Assists Blocks
Close Shots F 61% 356 D- 6.5% 339
2 Pt. Jumpers Shots C+ 23% 138 C+ 5.9% 103
Three Pointers D- 90% 341 C 1.0% 150
Total F+ 66% 354 D 4.0% 308

Miscellaneous
Offense Defense
Possession Length 17.7 230 16.6 55
Fast Break Points Per Possession 0.13 289 0.17 160
Improvement +5.6 #2 -0.6 #231

See methodology page for descriptions of rating types.
Predictions by Percentile
5th 50th 95th
Predictive Rating Rank 308 291 269
Conference Record 10 - 6 10 - 6 11 - 5
Conference Finish 3 3 2
NCAA Tourney Seed None None None
NCAA Tourney Finish None None None

NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0% 0% 0%
#1 Seed 0% 0% 0%
Top 2 Seed 0% 0% 0%
Top 4 Seed 0% 0% 0%
Top 6 Seed 0% 0% 0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 2% 2% 2%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0% 0% 0%
Average Seed 15.9 15.8 16.0
.500 or above 7% 22% 2%
.500 or above in Conference 100% 100% 100%
Conference Champion 0% 0% 0%
Last Place in Conference 0% 0% 0%
First Four1% 1% 1%
First Round1% 2% 1%
Second Round0% 0% 0%
Sweet Sixteen0% 0% 0%
Elite Eight0% 0% 0%
Final Four0% 0% 0%
Championship Game0% 0% 0%
National Champion0% 0% 0%

Next Game: South Dakota St. (Away) - 22.9% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 20 - 2
Quad 1b0 - 10 - 3
Quad 21 - 21 - 5
Quad 32 - 53 - 10
Quad 411 - 614 - 17


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Lead Record Total Rating Offense Defense
Avg Time Overall Conf Total First
FGA		 2nd Chance TOs Total First
FGA		 2nd Chance TOs
 Mon, Nov 3 19 @Alabama L 62 - 91 1% -17  0% 0 - 1 D+ -8 F -11 C+ F C+ B +4 D+ A+ A+
 Thu, Nov 6 279 UC Riverside L 70 - 74 58% -5  11% 0 - 2 D- -14 F+ -10 C F C+ D+ -4 F B A+
 Sun, Nov 9 159 Cal St. Northridge L 85 - 93 33% -4  25% 0 - 3 D -11 C+ +2 C B- A+ F -12 F F A-
 Sat, Nov 15 279 @UC Riverside W 76 - 74 35% +0  54% 1 - 3 C- -2 D -5 C F C B- +3 F C A+
 Wed, Nov 19 60 @Creighton L 60 - 75 4% -9  9% 1 - 4 C- -3 D- -6 D D- B+ B- +2 A+ F B+
 Sat, Nov 22 238 Coastal Carolina L 58 - 75 37% -10  20% 1 - 5 F -21 F -20 F C- C- C -0 F B D
 Sun, Nov 23 362 @Western Illinois W 78 - 69 75% -1  47% 2 - 5 D+ -6 D- -7 D+ F F+ C+ +1 F F+ A+
 Fri, Nov 28 117 @Hawaii L 55 - 92 11% -14  15% 2 - 6 F -31 F -19 F D+ F F+ -8 F C- B
 Wed, Dec 3 186 @Idaho L 58 - 90 20% -15  12% 2 - 7 F -31 F -16 C- F F F -15 F F A-
 Sat, Dec 6 183 Montana L 75 - 79 37% +1  48% 2 - 8 D -8 C -0 D- A+ C+ F+ -8 D- F A-
 Sat, Dec 13 362 Western Illinois L 66 - 69 OT 88% -1  38% 2 - 9 F -24 F -21 F B- F C- -3 A+ F A
 Thu, Dec 18 136 Winthrop W 90 - 88 28% -2  32% 3 - 9 C +0 A +13 C- A+ A+ F -13 F F C+
 Sun, Dec 21 13 @Nebraska L 55 - 78 1% -3  47% 3 - 10 C -1 D -5 C+ F B B- +2 B+ A F
 Thu, Jan 1 338 Oral Roberts W 72 - 61 75% +10  98% 4 - 10 1 - 0 C- -4 F+ -9 F+ D+ F B+ +6 A D+ C-
 Sat, Jan 3 206 South Dakota St. W 90 - 87 OT 43% +1  60% 5 - 10 2 - 0 C- -3 A +12 B A+ C+ F -15 F+ F B
 Thu, Jan 8 240 @Nebraska Omaha L 79 - 90 27% -7  1% 5 - 11 2 - 1 D- -12 C+ +3 D C A F -15 F D B
 Sat, Jan 10 360 @UMKC W 81 - 79 71% -2  28% 6 - 11 3 - 1 D- -11 B+ +8 D+ C- A+ F -19 F C+ A+
 Thu, Jan 15 121 St. Thomas L 80 - 91 24% -5  9% 6 - 12 3 - 2 D -11 C- -0 C- A D- F -10 F D A+
 Sat, Jan 17 291 South Dakota W 96 - 80 60% +11  94% 7 - 12 4 - 2 B- +6 A+ +15 C A+ A+ F+ -9 F A C+
 Thu, Jan 22 338 @Oral Roberts W 79 - 62 54% +8  84% 8 - 12 5 - 2 B +8 B- +5 D B- A+ B +4 B+ F A+
 Sat, Jan 24 236 @Denver W 93 - 86 26% +0  49% 9 - 12 6 - 2 B- +6 B+ +8 B- D+ C+ C- -2 F A- B+
 Thu, Jan 29 121 @St. Thomas W 81 - 80 11% -2  29% 10 - 12 7 - 2 B- +7 B+ +8 B C- A+ C -1 B- D C
 Thu, Feb 5 240 Nebraska Omaha W 76 - 73 48% -5  7% 11 - 12 8 - 2 C- -4 D+ -3 F D- A+ C -1 A F C+
 Sat, Feb 7 236 Denver L 79 - 98 48% -12  0% 11 - 13 8 - 3 F -26 C- -2 F D A+ F -25 F F D
 Wed, Feb 11 291 @South Dakota W 72 - 71 37% -1  36% 12 - 13 9 - 3 C- -3 D+ -3 F C+ A- C -0 C D C+
 Sat, Feb 14 132 North Dakota St. L 66 - 83 27% -4  35% 12 - 14 9 - 4 F -18 D -6 D- D+ C+ F -14 F F A+
 Thu, Feb 19 360 UMKC W 85 - 70 86% +7  84% 13 - 14 10 - 4 C- -4 D -4 F A F+ C -1 B- C- C-
 Sat, Feb 21 206 @South Dakota St. L 72 - 80 23%
 Sat, Feb 28 132 @North Dakota St. L 70 - 82 12%
Totals 13 - 16 10 - 6 -8 C- -2 F D- B D- -6 D+ D+ C+



Game Detail
Grades are adjusted for opponent strength in each category. Game stats are not adjusted for oppoent strength. See methodology page for descriptions of rating types.
Offense Defense
Tot Off First Field Goal Attempt Second Chance TOs Freethrows Tot Def First Field Goal Attempt Second Chance TOs Freethrows
Shot Accuracy Shot Selection Points Per Shot Shot Accuracy Shot Selection Points Per Shot
2 C 2 L 3 Tot 2 C 2 L 3 Tot Off Reb PPP Tot Att Perc Tot 2 C 2 L 3 Tot 2 C 2 L 3 Tot Off Reb PPP Tot Att Perc Tot
Season Ratings C- D- D D+ D- 42% 29% 43% B D C- C+ C- B- B- D+ C+ D- D C- D D 44% 13% 43% F+ D- D- D- F+ B+ F+ C+ D-
1.06 51% 33% 32% -5 +1 0.93 28% 1.0 .29 15% .34 70% .23 1.17 63% 40% 37% +4 +1 1.13 35% 1.1 .40 20% .38 71% .24
Nov
3		 Alabama F C+ C- F+ C+ 44% 25% 32% B C+ F F F C+ C F D B F F B+ D+ 44% 6% 50% D- D+ D+ A+ A+ A+ F C- F
0.84 56% 36% 28% -4 0 0.93 17% 0.1 .02 14% .27 53% .14 1.23 78% 67% 31% +8 +2 1.23 37% 0.7 .27 20% .46 78% .36
Nov
6		 UC Riverside F+ C A+ D- C 44% 16% 40% B- C D- F F C+ A- F D D+ F+ F A- F+ 59% 7% 34% F F A+ F+ B A+ F F F
0.99 59% 63% 30% +2 +1 1.08 24% 0.6 .15 14% .40 50% .20 1.05 67% 67% 29% +4 +3 1.17 17% 1.0 .17 27% .52 81% .43
Nov
9		 Cal St. Northridge C+ A+ F+ F C 34% 17% 48% C+ C D A+ B- A+ B F C- F F A+ F F 47% 20% 33% C+ F F C- F A- F B+ F
1.12 80% 30% 25% 0 0 1.02 23% 1.6 .36 11% .34 65% .22 1.23 71% 20% 47% +9 +1 1.22 42% 1.0 .42 21% .52 61% .32
Nov
15		 UC Riverside D C F B C- 49% 10% 41% A- C D- F F C F F F B- D F D+ F 40% 6% 53% F F C C- C A+ F A+ D+
1.02 59% 17% 38% 0 +2 1.07 24% 0.7 .17 15% .22 50% .11 1.00 63% 67% 36% +6 +2 1.17 27% 0.9 .23 28% .39 62% .24
Nov
19		 Creighton D- D F C D- 47% 20% 33% A- D D D- D- B+ C- B C- B- F A+ A+ A+ 27% 9% 64% D+ A+ F F F B+ F A+ F
0.93 50% 18% 33% -8 +1 0.87 24% 0.9 .21 12% .19 73% .14 1.16 92% 0% 17% -11 +1 0.82 50% 1.3 .64 17% .47 60% .28
Nov
22		 Coastal Carolina F F F F F 23% 33% 44% D F C+ D- C- C- A+ F+ A+ C C- F D- F 39% 17% 44% F F A+ F B D C- A+ B
0.78 36% 25% 14% -22 -3 0.52 29% 0.9 .25 13% .53 65% .34 1.01 57% 56% 38% +5 +1 1.13 15% 1.2 .18 13% .28 56% .16
Nov
23		 Western Illinois D- D+ D+ A+ C- 42% 27% 31% D- D+ F A+ F F+ C+ A+ A- C+ A A F F 37% 17% 46% F F C+ F F+ A+ F+ A+ C
1.07 59% 36% 44% +4 -1 1.10 12% 2.0 .23 18% .33 85% .28 0.94 41% 25% 48% +1 0 1.04 24% 1.4 .32 23% .37 52% .20
Nov
28		 Hawaii F F F F F 50% 8% 42% A F F A+ D+ F A+ F A F+ F B- A+ F 60% 6% 34% F F D+ C+ C- B F B+ F
0.71 38% 25% 20% -20 +2 0.67 16% 1.3 .22 21% .46 61% .28 1.19 80% 33% 24% +8 +3 1.24 33% 1.0 .33 22% .51 68% .35
Dec
3		 Idaho F B- D- D+ C- 34% 19% 47% B- C- F+ F F F B F D- F F A+ F F 30% 7% 63% D F F F F A- F F F
0.84 63% 33% 32% -1 0 1.00 19% 0.0 .00 24% .38 55% .21 1.30 69% 0% 48% +14 +1 1.33 39% 1.2 .48 20% .43 92% .40
Dec
6		 Montana C B- D- F F+ 42% 25% 33% C D- A A- A+ C+ C+ A B F+ B- C- F D- 40% 11% 49% D- D- F F F A- F A+ F+
1.09 64% 31% 18% -7 0 0.87 40% 1.2 .48 14% .31 78% .24 1.15 56% 40% 45% +8 +1 1.20 33% 1.4 .48 25% .46 63% .29
Dec
13		 Western Illinois F F F F 48% 0% 52% A F D+ A B- F A+ C- A+ C- A+ A+ A+ A+ 54% 18% 28% F A+ F F+ F A F F F
0.91 50% 17% -17 +3 0.74 32% 1.3 .42 23% .45 72% .33 0.95 33% 22% 14% -24 +1 0.56 48% 1.1 .52 22% .44 80% .35
Dec
18		 Winthrop A F A A- D 41% 4% 55% A C- A- A+ A+ A+ A+ D+ A+ F C+ F F F 43% 8% 50% D- F A F F C+ F A F
1.30 38% 50% 39% -3 +2 1.00 38% 1.4 .53 10% .51 72% .37 1.27 53% 67% 45% +8 +2 1.23 26% 1.9 .48 16% .74 67% .50
Dec
21		 Nebraska D F F B C 25% 23% 53% B C+ F+ F F B D- A+ D+ B- F+ A A+ A- 44% 15% 41% C B+ D- A+ A F D- F F
0.83 46% 25% 36% -4 -1 0.91 16% 0.0 .00 18% .16 78% .13 1.17 75% 25% 27% +2 +1 1.07 31% 0.5 .17 9% .31 84% .26
Jan
1		 Oral Roberts F+ F F A+ F+ 51% 16% 33% C F+ B- F D+ F A+ D A+ B+ A- F A+ A 41% 14% 45% C- A B F D+ C- D A+ C
1.04 41% 29% 43% -6 +1 0.93 36% 0.9 .33 20% .62 68% .42 0.88 45% 57% 18% -13 +1 0.78 23% 1.3 .30 17% .33 63% .21
Jan
3		 South Dakota St. A B+ B- B- B 28% 13% 58% C+ B A+ C- A+ C+ C A+ B+ F C+ A+ F D- 46% 10% 44% F F+ F F F B F F F
1.29 67% 43% 35% +4 0 1.11 47% 1.1 .50 14% .30 89% .27 1.25 57% 20% 45% +5 +2 1.16 38% 1.2 .47 19% .41 78% .32
Jan
8		 Nebraska Omaha C+ F+ D- C D- 34% 12% 54% C+ D C+ C- C A A+ D A+ F F+ F F F 46% 12% 41% F F F+ C+ D B F F F
1.15 53% 33% 33% -3 +1 0.98 31% 1.0 .31 10% .49 70% .34 1.32 68% 60% 47% +16 +2 1.37 32% 1.0 .32 19% .63 80% .51
Jan
10		 UMKC B+ F B+ A- D+ 43% 20% 37% C- D+ D+ B- C- A+ A+ F B F B F F F 19% 40% 40% A+ F F A+ C+ A+ D F F
1.24 48% 45% 40% +1 0 1.04 33% 1.1 .36 8% .40 58% .23 1.21 50% 59% 65% +26 -4 1.45 39% 0.6 .22 27% .29 93% .27
Jan
15		 St. Thomas C- F+ A+ C D 56% 8% 36% A C- C A+ A D- A+ C+ A+ F D A+ F F 38% 5% 57% D+ F A F D A+ F A+ F
1.10 50% 50% 33% -4 +3 1.00 30% 1.6 .48 21% .52 77% .40 1.25 69% 0% 67% +30 +2 1.67 13% 2.0 .25 21% .59 56% .33
Jan
17		 South Dakota A+ B D C C+ 52% 18% 30% C- C B A+ A+ A+ F F F F+ D A+ F F 44% 10% 46% F+ F B+ A+ A C+ D- F F
1.37 66% 36% 33% +3 +1 1.11 38% 1.8 .71 9% .11 57% .06 1.15 62% 20% 45% +8 +2 1.21 23% 0.7 .17 19% .42 83% .35
Jan
22		 Oral Roberts B- F D- A+ D- 63% 12% 25% A- D D+ A+ B- A+ C- A+ B+ B C A+ A+ A 55% 3% 43% F B+ F F F A+ F B- F
1.20 39% 33% 54% -5 +3 0.98 30% 1.4 .42 9% .30 89% .27 0.94 55% 0% 18% -13 +4 0.83 39% 1.2 .45 27% .57 70% .40
Shot Accuracy Shot Selection PPS 2nd Chance TOs Freethrows Shot Accuracy Shot Selection PPS 2nd Chance TOs Freethrows
Jan
24		 Denver B+ C F A+ B 38% 17% 44% C- B- C D- D+ C+ A+ C- A+ C- B+ F F F 33% 20% 47% F+ F A- B+ A- B+ F A+ F
1.27 60% 22% 48% +7 0 1.17 34% 1.0 .34 12% .50 69% .34 1.18 47% 60% 46% +9 0 1.20 24% 1.0 .24 18% .45 67% .30
Jan
29		 St. Thomas B+ C A+ C B 45% 11% 44% B B D+ B- C- A+ D+ F D C C F A- B 55% 10% 35% D- B- F B- D C F D F
1.18 60% 67% 33% +4 +2 1.13 26% 1.2 .32 12% .25 67% .17 1.17 63% 60% 29% +3 +3 1.12 29% 0.9 .26 15% .39 74% .29
Feb
5		 Nebraska Omaha D+ A F F F 37% 15% 48% C+ F C F D- A+ A+ F A+ C F A+ A A 28% 24% 48% B A F F F C+ F A D
1.11 74% 25% 20% -6 +1 0.90 30% 0.7 .21 4% .58 66% .38 1.07 77% 9% 27% -6 -1 0.87 35% 1.3 .45 18% .39 64% .25
Feb
7		 Denver C- C+ F F F 63% 4% 33% A+ F F A D A+ A+ A+ A+ F F F C- F 35% 23% 42% D F F D- F D F D- F
1.18 62% 0% 11% -11 +4 0.89 24% 1.3 .32 4% .44 86% .37 1.46 83% 58% 36% +15 -1 1.31 43% 1.3 .54 12% .39 83% .32
Feb
11		 South Dakota D+ F A+ F F 71% 8% 21% A F B- C- C+ A- C- F+ D+ C F B- A+ B 54% 6% 40% F C D- C D C+ B+ C- B
1.08 43% 75% 27% -10 +4 0.90 36% 1.2 .42 12% .27 69% .19 1.06 74% 33% 10% -6 +3 0.96 32% 1.0 .32 18% .31 76% .24
Feb
14		 North Dakota St. D F A C F 44% 8% 48% A D- D C D+ C+ A+ D- A F D- A+ D- D- 49% 2% 49% F F F F F A+ F+ D- F
1.02 48% 50% 35% -3 +2 1.00 25% 0.9 .22 19% .38 70% .27 1.28 67% 0% 38% +6 +3 1.21 44% 1.6 .70 23% .34 76% .26
Feb
19		 UMKC D F F C F 47% 6% 47% A- F D A+ A F+ A+ A+ A+ C A- A+ B A- 48% 14% 38% F B- B F C- C- C- F D
1.10 39% 0% 35% -11 +2 0.86 33% 1.5 .50 21% .52 81% .43 0.91 44% 25% 29% -11 +2 0.82 24% 1.1 .26 18% .27 76% .21



Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Summit League Finish

0-16 1-15 2-14 3-13 4-12 5-11 6-10 7-9 8-8 9-7 10-6 11-5 12-4 13-3 14-2 15-1 16-0 Total
1st 0.0 0.0 1st
2nd 1.8 6.2 2.1 10.0 2nd
3rd 66.3 22.4 1.2 89.9 3rd
4th 4th
5th 5th
6th 6th
7th 7th
8th 8th
9th 9th
Total 68.1 28.7 3.3 Total



Summit League Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
16-0
15-1
14-2
13-3
12-4 0.9% 0.0    0.0
11-5 0.0%
10-6 0.0%
9-7
8-8
Total 0.0% 0.0 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
16-0
15-1
14-2
13-3
12-4 3.3% 3.2% 3.2% 15.3 0.1 0.0 3.2
11-5 28.7% 2.3% 2.3% 15.8 0.1 0.6 28.0
10-6 68.1% 1.4% 1.4% 16.0 0.0 1.0 67.1
9-7
8-8
7-9
6-10
5-11
4-12
3-13
2-14
1-15
0-16
Total 100% 1.7% 1.7% 0.0% 15.9 98.3 0.0%


Best / Worst Case Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Win Out 0.1% 100.0% 15.3 74.2 25.8
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Championship 0.2%
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Semi-Final 1.1%
Lose Out 44.2%