North Dakota
Summit League
2019-20 - 2024-25 - 2025-26
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Overall
Predictive Rating-6.6#289
Expected Predictive Rating-5.5#257
Pace67.9#215
Improvement-0.2#196

Offense
Total Offense-2.1#224
First Shot-4.9#309
After Offensive Rebound+2.8#48
Layup/Dunks-3.1#276
2 Pt Jumpshots+1.3#102
3 Pt Jumpshots-4.7#319
Freethrows+1.5#96
Improvement+2.5#24

Defense
Total Defense-4.6#317
First Shot-4.6#319
After Offensive Rebounds+0.0#185
Layups/Dunks-3.2#287
2 Pt Jumpshots-2.6#330
3 Pt Jumpshots+1.5#124
Freethrows-0.3#211
Improvement-2.7#349
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 3.2% 4.2% 2.4%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Average Seed 15.6 15.5 15.7
.500 or above 11.7% 18.5% 6.2%
.500 or above in Conference 34.3% 40.6% 29.2%
Conference Champion 2.3% 3.1% 1.6%
Last Place in Conference 19.3% 15.3% 22.7%
First Four1.6% 1.8% 1.4%
First Round2.5% 3.4% 1.7%
Second Round0.0% 0.1% 0.0%
Sweet Sixteen0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Elite Eight0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: Weber St. (Home) - 45.0% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 10 - 1
Quad 1b0 - 10 - 1
Quad 20 - 30 - 4
Quad 32 - 63 - 10
Quad 48 - 810 - 18


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 04, 2024 99   @ Colorado St. L 56-82 9%     0 - 1 -17.6 -14.3 -1.8
  Nov 14, 2024 184   Utah Valley W 77-71 40%     1 - 1 +1.9 +2.8 -0.9
  Nov 19, 2024 80   @ Notre Dame L 58-75 7%     1 - 2 -7.1 -9.1 +1.5
  Nov 22, 2024 181   @ Loyola Marymount W 77-73 21%     2 - 2 +5.9 +3.5 +2.3
  Nov 26, 2024 288   Bethune-Cookman L 67-79 50%     2 - 3 -18.6 -7.2 -11.3
  Nov 27, 2024 227   SE Louisiana L 60-76 38%     2 - 4 -19.6 -8.1 -12.4
  Dec 04, 2024 239   @ Eastern Washington L 81-87 30%     2 - 5 -7.2 +10.2 -17.9
  Dec 07, 2024 210   Weber St. L 71-72 45%    
  Dec 11, 2024 184   @ Utah Valley L 69-78 21%    
  Dec 15, 2024 249   Texas San Antonio W 78-77 54%    
  Dec 18, 2024 5   Alabama L 71-93 2%    
  Jan 02, 2025 306   Nebraska Omaha W 75-71 64%    
  Jan 04, 2025 133   St. Thomas L 72-77 32%    
  Jan 09, 2025 321   @ Denver L 74-75 47%    
  Jan 11, 2025 261   @ Oral Roberts L 74-78 36%    
  Jan 16, 2025 120   @ South Dakota St. L 69-81 13%    
  Jan 18, 2025 292   UMKC W 71-68 62%    
  Jan 23, 2025 224   South Dakota L 80-81 49%    
  Jan 25, 2025 187   @ North Dakota St. L 69-77 23%    
  Feb 01, 2025 120   South Dakota St. L 72-78 29%    
  Feb 06, 2025 306   @ Nebraska Omaha L 72-74 43%    
  Feb 08, 2025 292   @ UMKC L 68-71 40%    
  Feb 13, 2025 321   Denver W 77-72 68%    
  Feb 15, 2025 261   Oral Roberts W 77-75 57%    
  Feb 22, 2025 187   North Dakota St. L 72-74 42%    
  Feb 27, 2025 133   @ St. Thomas L 69-80 16%    
  Mar 01, 2025 224   @ South Dakota L 78-84 30%    
Projected Record 10 - 17 7 - 9




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Summit League Finish

0-16 1-15 2-14 3-13 4-12 5-11 6-10 7-9 8-8 9-7 10-6 11-5 12-4 13-3 14-2 15-1 16-0 Total
1st 0.0 0.2 0.6 0.8 0.5 0.2 0.0 0.0 2.3 1st
2nd 0.0 0.5 1.7 1.9 0.8 0.1 0.0 5.0 2nd
3rd 0.0 1.0 3.4 3.4 0.9 0.1 8.9 3rd
4th 0.1 1.3 5.0 4.2 1.1 0.1 11.8 4th
5th 0.1 1.6 6.2 5.5 1.1 0.1 14.5 5th
6th 0.1 1.8 7.1 5.8 1.1 0.0 15.9 6th
7th 0.2 2.2 6.4 5.7 1.0 0.0 15.6 7th
8th 0.0 0.4 2.5 5.9 4.6 1.0 0.0 14.4 8th
9th 0.2 1.2 3.1 3.8 2.6 0.6 0.0 11.6 9th
Total 0.2 1.2 3.5 6.6 10.8 13.5 15.4 14.4 12.7 9.2 6.4 3.5 1.7 0.6 0.2 0.0 0.0 Total



Summit League Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
16-0 100.0% 0.0    0.0
15-1 100.0% 0.0    0.0 0.0
14-2 97.0% 0.2    0.2 0.0
13-3 77.5% 0.5    0.3 0.2 0.0
12-4 47.6% 0.8    0.4 0.4 0.1 0.0
11-5 16.2% 0.6    0.1 0.3 0.1 0.0
10-6 2.6% 0.2    0.0 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0
9-7 0.0% 0.0    0.0
8-8 0.0%
Total 2.3% 2.3 1.0 0.9 0.3 0.1 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
16-0 0.0% 0.0
15-1 0.0% 0.0 0.0 0.0
14-2 0.2% 35.6% 35.6% 13.9 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.1
13-3 0.6% 23.7% 23.7% 14.6 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.5
12-4 1.7% 15.2% 15.2% 14.8 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.0 1.5
11-5 3.5% 11.8% 11.8% 15.2 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.2 3.1
10-6 6.4% 8.4% 8.4% 15.5 0.0 0.3 0.3 5.8
9-7 9.2% 5.6% 5.6% 15.8 0.0 0.1 0.4 8.7
8-8 12.7% 3.6% 3.6% 15.9 0.0 0.4 12.2
7-9 14.4% 2.4% 2.4% 16.0 0.3 14.1
6-10 15.4% 1.4% 1.4% 16.0 0.2 15.2
5-11 13.5% 1.2% 1.2% 16.0 0.2 13.3
4-12 10.8% 0.3% 0.3% 16.0 0.0 10.8
3-13 6.6% 0.3% 0.3% 16.0 0.0 6.6
2-14 3.5% 3.5
1-15 1.2% 1.2
0-16 0.2% 0.2
Total 100% 3.2% 3.2% 0.0% 15.6 0.0 0.0 0.3 0.8 2.1 96.8 0.0%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Lose Out 0.1%